Wave/Swell Data
 

Hey all.

I've been checking the swell data on the cam page and the observed data has been showing like 1 foot swell but the predictions are completely larger...has it really been 1 foot for the last few days and are the predictions this off normally, or is the data being collected wrong (it kind of looks that way since the 'observed data' looks almost the same for days)

thanks!

Mike,

It most certainly was not 1 foot yesterday, there was definitely some 3 footers yesterday (swell and wave sets at the launch) but I dont know what the graphs were saying. Normally I prelim with the graphs, sanity check on the webcam, and make the final call at the launch....on a real low tide those waves are far enough out that even some of the decent sets look much smaller.

Eric

Wetsand.com
 

I find the surf website is the best predictor of local waves. Boomer has been ridable the last couple days and I hope to get out there this pm with the reports of all the Barries on the 1/2 and 3/4 day boats and Yani's report of no fish on his trip a couple days ago I plan to try to get my son slimed tomarrow am. If Yani "The Yellowtail Machine" doesn't get one you know they are tough to find right now.

I learned the following information from Larry Lauman's Cool Links site (Blackcloud) which is my favorite link site. It has all you need if you haven't checked it out. Particularly this link:

http://cdip.ucsd.edu/?nav=recent&sub...m=tpo_forecast

(linked from http://larryl.com/favorite_kayak_conditions.htm)

I've found it's data plots and info is almost perfect.

The way it works(again I thank Blackcloud's site for this info):

Basically the smaller the peak periods and the higher the waves the worst it's going to be.

But if the peak period is real high like 15 seconds and above, it almost doesn't matter how big the waves are plotting at, the Launch will have very small waves. I've seen 12 ft+ waves being plotted on this, but the launch was a pond, because the intervals were so high.

At the time that I'm writing this the forecast-ed wave height is about 6 ft.
It's being plotted at just under 4ft
The peak period is being forecast-ed at around 7 seconds
But it's plotting out at about 12 seconds and seems to be lowering

Since the peak period is in the higher range of 12 seconds the 4ft waves end up being apparently 1ft or less on the web cam right now(among other factors)

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y14...o_forecast.png

(That is funny ... Bender beat me to the post :))

Not sure which link you are using, but I have created my own page for
Shores launchability with my observations/interpretations. Hope it helps.
http://larryl.com/favorite_kayak_conditions.htm

I have rarely seen the forecast (red line) be so consistently off as the last
couple of days.

Over here at Windansea area the water is the color of chocolate milk, a
very rare occurrence. Waves after dark are creating displays of
phosphoresent color.

Hey guys new to the forums here, but I thought I may help. Surfline.com is free and very accurate. Just make sure you look at the predicted swell for the day. The tide makes a huge difference as well. I surfed tamarack the other day said the swell was 4-5 but at high tide it was completely flat, than at low tide again it was awesome surf. Hope I helped.

TT5150... its a little more complicated. I've been a Surfline Premium
member since the early days and used 976-SURF starting in 1985 when
they launched it.

Sean Collins can say 8-10 feet and the La Jolla shores launch may be one
foot. Or, he can say 8-10 feet and the launch can be 8-10 feet. That's
the beauty of having a CANYON.

Generally, they are "pretty good" in general forecasting though. I live by
surf reports and use all of their LOLA advanced charts and tools regularly,
along with watching the buoy "actuals".

Bender - there are also "mixed swell conditions" in which case the
windswell will take over as the "dominant energy" and TPO bouy
readings will then err on the side of caution for the LJ Shores launch.
Big Rock, where I launch, is another story entirely.